Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, June 18th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, giving back yesterday’s late rally. Stocks are showing sizable losses, pushing the Dow lower by 386 points and the Nasdaq down 63 points. The bond market is down only 1/32 (1.51%), but mortgage bonds have lost enough ground to erase the rally we saw late yesterday. The net result will be a slight increase in this morning’s mortgage rates compared to Thursday’s early pricing. However, if you saw an intraday improvement Thursday afternoon, you should see an increase of the same size in today’s pricing.

1/32

Bonds

30 yr - 1.51%

386

Dow

33,437

63

NASDAQ

14,097

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Neutral

Stock Influences

There is no relevant economic data being posted today. It is Quadruple Witching day for the stock markets, where four different types of stock options and futures expire simultaneously. It is common to see stock volatility on days this happens. Under normal circumstances, stock volatility can influence bond trading and, to some degree, mortgage pricing. However, there seems to be a disconnect right now between the traditional pattern of good days for stocks are bad days for bonds and vice versa. We are currently seeing stocks move in the same direction as bonds more often than opposite, meaning today’s Quadruple Witching may not influence bond trading or mortgage rates like it has in the past.

Low

Neutral

Holiday Schedule

If wondering, the new Juneteenth Federal holiday designation will not affect the markets this year. The stock and bond markets are open for regular trading today. It is likely to be a bond market holiday in coming years, where we will have at least an early close in recognition of it, if not a full day closure. At this time, it is unknown how the stock markets will treat the holiday in the future. It will not come into play this year though.

Medium

Unknown

None

Next week brings us a good number of economic reports that may affect mortgage rates, but only one of them is considered to be highly important. In addition to the data are a couple of Treasury auctions and a mandatory congressional appearance by Fed Chairman Powell as part of the Coronavirus Aid package. There is nothing scheduled for Monday. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.